Monday, March 7, 2011

Will GE13 be held this year?

Now that the Merlimau and Kerdau by-elections are over, the confidence level in the BN, especially UMNO, must have gone up a few notches higher as a result of them winning these two seats including the one in the previous-held Tenang by-election. Basing on this "feel good" feeling, much has been reported in the various news portal and blogs that there is a good chance Najib may call for the 13GE within months to take advantage of the current situation. However, I beg to differ.

My hunch is that he will not. Basing on the current scenario, the GE in most likelihood, will be held next year as Najib still needs time to consolidate his position within UMNO and the various component parties of the BN. While many UMNO leaders are experiencing the good feeling right now as a result of recent wins, but it must be remembered that these, and the ones before, were all UMNO strongholds. Furthermore, being by-elections UMNO was able to focus all the resources on one spot. The good feeling should only be felt when they managed to win over a Pakatan held constituency. So right now, it is almost like the status quo. It is very much different if it is a GE as they may not have too much resources stretched over too many areas in too short time. Since March 2008, UMNO have created much ill-feelings among the non-Malays. Instead of improving relationships with the various races, they have aggravated the situation further with their high and mighty attitude. The Chinese, Christians and Indians will not forget the treatment they received and come GE13, it will be pay-back time again. Furthermore, the Teoh Beng Hock case, Anwar's sodomy case and PKFZ scandal will haunt the BN no end and I believe this is something Najib cannot afford to have them handing around his neck during a general election.. These three issues must be settled first. Therefore, my bet is that the 13GE will be held during the first term school holidays in 2012.

Looking at my crystal ball, I could see the following outcome of GE13: Please feel free to disagree as I stand corrected.
1. Pakatan will continue to administer Penang, and so will Kelantan.
2. Selangor will still be under Pakatan, although the margin of votes especially in predominantly Malay areas will be reduced. Constituencies won by non-Malay Pakatan candidates in 2008 will continue to hold, some with an increased majority.
3. Kedah will experience a 50/50 chance of being retained by Pakatan unless something is done now to step up activities just like Penang, those that will benefit the rakyat of the state. One slight agitation and it's bye bye. The people may not vote for the BN, but they prefer to abstain.
4. Perak will return to Pakatan.
5. Pakatan will not take over the Federal government but will continue to deny the BN the critical 2/3. Pakatan may even gain a few more seats at the courtesy of some allies in East Malaysia.
6. Negri Sembilan may fall to Pakatan.

Right now, I just can't wait to get my hands on the ballot paper so I can start voting these fellas out, once and for all..

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