Saturday, January 16, 2016

Woe unto us!


It is not a recession that we are in, we are headed for another depression and that is even worse, and to compound that Malaysia is in more difficulties than it has ever been, with those in power lavishly enriching still themselves.

Now the twenty dollar mark for the price of oil looks a real possibility and this careless government has plundered all the resources instead of saving for the rainy day.

I remember back in the early eighties or late seventies Kit Siang asking the government to be more prudent with its oil reserves, he warned that the then wells would run dry within 15 years, but alas these fellows kept pumping and using the money on wasteful projects they thought the price would keep spiraling with the times.

Now with auto makers stepping up the fuel efficient cars and even electric hybrids the demands are going to fall even further in the next ten years petrol will be no big deal at all.

Mahathir almost single single handedly destroyed our Agricultural base with assembly plant type manufacturing that added no value to our industries, today those cheap labour sweatshops that we used to work in have all gone to cheaper markets and they are never coming back.

Robotics is the order of the day, you can manufacture in the US at even a cheaper rate than you can here even if the cost of labour is US$0.20 per hour that is how it is, we have lost our competitive advantage,

We sacrificed our education system no thanks to the clown in UMNOI who held the position and engineered it, we are not a nation of inventors and innovators we are not even copy-cats we are starring destruction right into our faces.

But then we are Malaysians given the right governance we can strike back, we can fight back and we can win, but to do that we have to cast the present day government into the dustbins of history.  We have to do what is necessary as citizens of this country come GE14.  If we don't, our children and our children's children will never forgive us.

 It is already telling prices are sky rocketing, Najib is forced to re-look his budget, my bet is his departments budget will still be high, he will instead cut on education and health the budget of an idiot from an idiot.

1 comment:

  1. Geronimo,you hit the nail on the head.The "D" word is definitely here.It is either depression or deflation.
    Either ways,bad times are here and the worse is yet to come.The cheerleaders of the Bernaike QE era are missing and no more or nowhere to be heard,screaming their lungs out.Buy on dips because the feds will always be there,come rain,lighting or thunder.Tsunami included.

    I have been saying for sometime now,that the feds 0.25% raise is a one timer,because they were caught between a rock and a hard place.And the next increase will be a long time from then.In fact,the next move might be back to 0%.

    The feds are like their's and our politicians.Always fucking up and cooking the books.Remember when gold was hovering near 2k,crude oil was nearing 150 a barrel,grains and foodstuffs were soaring through the roof?The fucking inflation was nowhere to be found,when our pocket books was empty as hell,almost zero and credit cards to the max?

    Then came the subprime.Instead of letting the markets clean and punish the screw ups,they went to rescue the screw ups on an all out "Uncle Sam" bailout.Something called the QE.That time I was trying to figure out,what the fuck is this fucking QE.The next second,I figured it out.They were trying to prevent the too big to fail mentality from becoming a reality.

    After buying trillions of toilet paper from the screw ups,the fed had again painted themselves into another rock and a hard place.They cannot get rid of the trillions of toilet paper,as used toilet had no economic value.So,the feds are fucked too.

    Then,came Japan and then the EU with their follow the leader,the fed's "QE".Since the subprime era,stocks have risen every single year on easy credit,leaving the struggling poor folks who depend on their savings to go to the poorhouse.

    In terms of points,the latest bull market in stocks will be a record,very hard to break in the very next few decades or even a century or centuries.Remember,in the middle eighties,when the Japanese market near 40k tanked to nearly 6k into late eighties?After 25 yrs,it had managed to crawl back into the half way point,due to Abe's follow the fed's 'QE'

    The time has finally come that easy money cannot be sustained anymore as the markets are too way and way over and over valued.The China thing is the excuse that the market is looking for to sell.When Humpty Dumpty comes tumbling down the Dow will be trading at 3k,way way below the all time highs of over 18k.That is if the "D" word becomes a reality.But this,we can only know after the fact.But for now,it is still not to late to sell,and move to the sidelines.Cash will still be king for the next couple of years,at least.